# @risk software question | Probability homework help

Must have @RISK Software with Excel. I need the excel sheets and the PDF/Word with answers to the questions below.

2) Cuban Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is

available, and Mark Cuban, the president and owner of Cuban Investors, believes it can be

sold for \$160,000. The current property owner asked for bids and stated that the property

will be sold for the highest bid in excess of \$100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids

for the property. Cuban does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for

planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed

between \$100,000 and \$150,000. Cuban is considering submitting a bid of anywhere between

\$120000 and \$150000 (in increments of \$5000) for the property. He has consulted you to

help him decide upon the “right” amount to bid for the property in order to maximize his

expected profit.

a. Let’s assume that Cuban decides to bid \$120000. Build a simulation model

corresponding to the above scenario and run it for 5000 iterations to answer parts b,

c, and d.

b. Based on your simulation model what is the probability that Cuban will be able to

obtain the property with the bid of 120,000?

c. Please provide a 95% confidence interval on your probability estimate from part b.

d. What is the expected profit associated with the bid of \$120,000?

e. Rerun your simulation model (5000 iterations each time) using bid amounts of

\$125000, \$130,000, \$135,000, \$140,000, \$145,000 and \$150,000. You can either run

each simulation separately or use risksimtable as discussed in the live session. Based

on these simulations which bid amount value would you recommend to Mark Cuban

in order to maximize his expected profit?

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